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Tune in for a dialogue on the Robotics Evolution and Revolution with Dr. Henrik I. Christensen, Chancellor Chair of Robotic Techniques for Qualcomm, Professor of Laptop Science at Division of Laptop Science and Engineering at College of California San Diego, and Director of the Institute for Contextual Robotics.
Webinar Transcript:
Jeremie Capron:
My identify is Jeremie Capron. I am the director of analysis right here at ROBO World. As a lot of , we’re the creators of research-driven index portfolios which can be designed to assist traders seize the expansion offered by the expertise revolution of robotics, automation, and AI. And that is what we’ll be speaking about immediately with a really particular visitor. I am actually thrilled to be joined immediately by Professor Henrik Christensen. He’s the director of robotics at UC San Diego. And Henrik can also be the principle editor of the US Nationwide Robotics Technique and an advisor to firms, governments, and traders world wide. Henry can also be a co-founder of ROBO World, and he is been serving to us steer our funding analysis efforts over the previous seven years. And for that, we’re very grateful. Henrik, thanks, and welcome.
Henrik Christensen:
Thanks.
Jeremie Capron:
So, immediately we’ll focus on among the most fun areas of robotics, automation, AI, and the way traders can capitalize on these tendencies. This can be a essential matter to us, to traders. Robotics and AI, we see as a set of general-purpose applied sciences that may be utilized to each trade very very like the web or electrical energy originally of the twentieth century, and that is providing large funding alternatives. So we’re very lucky right here at ROBO international to be working with among the most distinguished thought leaders in robotics and AI; teachers and entrepreneurs like Henrik and several other others you can see right here on a strategic advisory board. So we’re actually proud to mix a monetary and funding evaluation strategy with expertise analysis and experience that is coming from individuals like Henrik. And immediately there’s greater than $4 billion in funds monitoring our methods. Right here on the New York Inventory Change, in addition to in Europe and in Asia.
And probably the most notable might be ROBO. ROBO was the primary robotics and automation ETF. It launched round seven years in the past. It is returned greater than 50% over the 12 months to the top of the second quarter, and an annualized 22% over the previous 5 years. So, we additionally run THNQ. That is the factitious intelligence index, which we launched three years in the past, and Henrik has been instrumental in serving to us analysis and perceive the world of AI machine studying. And HTEC; H-T-E-C, that is the healthcare expertise and innovation index, and you’ll see the three methods have considerably outperformed international equities since inception. You could find extra data on our web site at roboglobal.com. So with that, I wish to invite Henrik to the digital stage. Give us a quick presentation on robotics evolution and alternatives. And for all individuals, we’ll be addressing your questions after that. So please use the Q and A operate on the backside of your display screen to log your questions. All proper, Henrik.
Henrik Christensen:
Hey, thanks, Jeremie. Let me see if I can get the sharing going right here. There we go. So, thanks, Jeremie. Thanks for this chance to additionally discuss among the issues I am very enthusiastic about. So, one of many issues I have been doing, as Jeremie talked about, is that I am the principle editor of the US Nationwide Robotics Roadmap, which we publish each 4 years. So 2009, it was, after all, the financial downturn. It was collaborative robotics that was the principle stage. 2013, after the horrible catastrophe in Fukushima, it was robots for rescue and people sorts of issues. 2016, it was globalization. How can we then get excessive combine, low quantity? And now the roadmap that is simply been revealed, we’re taking a look at what’s the post-pandemic world that we’re taking a look at. So we take a look at among the mega tendencies.
It’s how can we get to a society the place we’re submit COVID? What are the impacts there? We’re seeing nonetheless altering commerce dynamics. We’re seeing mass customization, questions on urbanization; are all of us shifting again to the massive cities, or are we going to remain away in type of a work-from-home form of situation? And naturally, the getting old situation or getting old society continues to be a fairly large deal. If we take a look at among the COVID implications, it’s totally clear that logistics’ last-mile deliveries, these sorts of features, are enjoying a giant function. It is grown tremendously. We had 18 months or one thing like that, the place most individuals would take house deliveries relatively than going to grocery shops. We noticed someplace between 40 and 60% development in last-mile logistics. That can proceed. We see that staying on. However we additionally seeing Tele-robotics, the place there’s lots of curiosity for medical doctors and others to not must see sufferers head to head, however nonetheless conducting digital visits.
We’re seeing, after all, screening. We’re nonetheless doing COVID testing on a really giant scale. We’re seeing meals security. How can we assure that some meals was not touched by people? Cleansing, disinfection. And naturally, we additionally seeing an absence of a migrant workforce. It was once that you’d have lots of people shifting round due to COVID and due to different features, we do not have that very same dimension of a migrant workforce, and that impacts how we might do issues, and it motivates a better diploma of automation than we have seen earlier than. When it comes to the commerce dynamics, we’re seeing manufacturing shifting in areas like automotive. 30% of the automobiles are nonetheless made in China, however we’re seeing a motion in the direction of India, in the direction of Vietnam, in the direction of different areas which can be impacting this. Wage continues to be a giant issue, and for that cause, a few of that manufacturing shouldn’t be shifting again to the US, and that motivates a better diploma of utilizing automation as we see a shuffle, identical to we did in 2009.
In order that’s essential to bear in mind, however clearly, the US-China is impacting how we take a look at this for the long run. Some will come again to the US. Some will go elsewhere. Mass customization is and can proceed to be a serious pattern. All people needs a one-off. So in the event you take a look at BMW X5 that you just’re seeing on this slide right here, it is obtainable in 4 million completely different configurations. All people needs their very own form of seats, their very own sorts of audio system, their very own completely different sorts of engines. All of that means that these automobiles can be found in 4 million completely different configurations. We solely make the identical automotive each two and a half week, which suggest that it is advisable have a extremely streamlined provide chain and manufacturing course of, and you’ll solely actually do that in case you have a really excessive diploma of automation.
We’re seeing the identical factor for particular person merchandise like sneakers. All people needs their very own shade, their very own customization on it. 3D printing and different applied sciences are enabling us to do that to a level we have by no means seen earlier than, which is actually cool. My long-term imaginative and prescient continues to be that you will have an autonomous UPS truck driving round in your neighborhood, and it is going to be 3D printing a product for you. And so that you order it, 5 minutes later, we’ll ring on the door and we’ll say, right here you go. Getting older society continues to be enjoying into this submit COVID or pre COVID. We had eight hours of enhance within the age of the world inhabitants on daily basis. We have seen a setback by two years throughout COVID, so the general common age of the world inhabitants went down by two years.
That is beginning to decide up once more. So once more, it’s best to count on to see eight hours a day. This suggests that we are going to stay longer. Sadly, we are going to get varied sorts of challenges as we get older, each when it comes to mobility and when it comes to different issues that can are available in and affect this. We not solely have societal drivers, however we even have expertise drivers. So, new supplies, for example, are essentially altering how we do that. We are able to construct grippers which can be totally custom-made to merchandise. So, for example, in the event you do strawberry selecting, we are able to truly construct a gripper that morning that can be utilized for the scale of strawberries we’ll decide immediately. And tomorrow, it could be a unique dimension for strawberries. We are able to actually customise it to this utilizing a mix of beta indicators, 3D supplies, and shortly we may even have a significantly better hybrid sensing constructing, which essentially modifications how we do that.
So we are able to do print to order, and we are able to add sensors that we have by no means seen earlier than. The identical factor with sensors, we have seen digicam expertise popping out. Right here, the grey space is conventional old-style cameras, blue is your commonplace journey cameras, Orange is your cellular phone expertise. So, you are having extra of those come out that we produced some other form of digicam. I stay in San Diego. So Qualcomm would inform me you can purchase cameras for these in quantity at $1, and you should purchase the processing energy to do it for $9. So abruptly we’re at a degree the place we are able to use applied sciences that we have by no means imagined earlier than, which is actually cool. We additionally seeing computing. Computing is changing into very low-cost, so we are able to now do trillions of operations per second, together with deep studying, and all of this, we are able to combine with eight to 10 cameras right into a single processor, and get that processing energy.
So we getting to a degree the place we have commoditized computing, AI, and deep studying to a degree that we have now by no means imagined earlier than, which is actually cool. The truth that I can do all of this and put 10 bucks at quantity makes a distinction in how we take into consideration issues. Another societal drivers, if we go briefly via among the verticals, will provide you with a way of the place we’re going. So in manufacturing, it is nonetheless price, it is nonetheless flexibility, however it’s additionally this that we are able to do very excessive quantity but in addition excessive combine in order that we are able to get virtually one-off manufacturing. Identical time we get into the place we have now codeless programming. So you may think about you may kind of present up and you should use a quite simple interface to have the ability to do very simple programming of this.
It was once that it is required you to have weeks of coaching to have the ability to function a robotic. Right here, you are type of seeing an iPad-like interface that makes it quite simple for individuals to truly go in and do programming of this. So we’re seeing READY Robotic, we’re seeing Intrinsic, we’re seeing a lot of these firms which can be popping out with quite simple interfaces that transform the price of deploying these techniques in on a regular basis eventualities. Logistics pushed by Alibaba, Baidu, Amazon, or Walmart, but in addition pushed by the truth that e-commerce is actually driving this ahead. You will notice rather more versatile distribution facilities than you have ever seen earlier than that permit us to go in, put materials and actually transport it to you in a minimal period of time.
In the event you go and ask UPS, UPS will say, once they ship the bundle to you, three hours of the time, it sits nonetheless, the remaining quantity of the time, it’s truly shifting in the direction of your vacation spot. So the truth that we getting this degree of agility makes an enormous distinction for us. And particularly as we see a change in a post-COVID world in the direction of rather more e-commerce, rather more supply of meals, no matter supplies, these are going to be the enabling applied sciences to make that attainable. Healthcare, we additionally see, the place there’s lots of curiosity in individualizing it, ensuring we are able to do it. How can we be certain that the sufferers, the households have entry, the mixing? Right here, we have now type of the interblade between robotics, AI and healthcare applied sciences that we’re seeing in ROBO when it comes to how we are able to do that. As a result of we see an getting old inhabitants, this isn’t solely going to be what you see within the hospitals, however it’s additionally going to be, what are you able to do within the house? How are you going to do rehabilitation? How are you going to assist individuals which can be remoted to really feel much less remoted than they really feel immediately?
So here is an instance. When COVID began, a lot of medical doctors confirmed up and mentioned, I do not need to be proper subsequent to a affected person as a result of I am nervous about potential COVID an infection. So having a teleoperated robotic the place you may stand even 10 toes away and do a teleconsultation along with your affected person would make an enormous distinction. So we have seen a basic change in expertise is right here to provide distant entry, and distant entry may very well be wherever from 10 toes to a whole bunch of miles, the place you present that degree of interface. That is in place now. We’re seeing the identical factor for with the ability to do distant surgical procedures. We have completed experiments not too long ago the place you will be on an plane provider in the midst of the Pacific, and a surgeon can dial in and help with doing surgical procedure for this with out having to truly be on the plane provider.
So we’re revolutionizing healthcare and entry to healthcare at a degree we have now not likely seen earlier than. We’re seeing new sorts of mechanisms. Digit is a robotic that was developed in Oregon that… So the issue is with lots of the last-mile deliveries, you may solely get to the staircase. We’re seeing innovation in new mechanisms that may stroll up the staircase that may get you all the best way to the entrance door. This can be a expertise that’s being examined by a number of firms proper now to truly make this attainable. It isn’t solely a query of, can I make it attainable, however it’s additionally a query of, can I make it accessible when it comes to financial prices? And right here, we’re seeing these robots popping out and doing this in a method that could be very, very versatile. So you will note these new applied sciences.
One of many areas the place we have been lacking is when it comes to greedy and manipulation. It has been very exhausting, if you consider it, at your fingertips, you will have about 300 mechanoreceptors that let you have very agile management. Till not too long ago, that was troublesome to do. With new supplies, we are able to now truly go in and construct very built-in gripper expertise that can permit us to do manipulation as we have by no means completed earlier than. That means as I discussed early on, we are able to do the selecting of strawberries. We are able to deal with grapes in vineyards. So it is all of those that is popping out, and on the similar time, we come at it at a price that’s accessible to even comparatively small-sized firms. When it comes to sensing and notion, we have seen the evolution of AI and machine studying that has enabled us to get a lot, a lot additional than we have completed earlier than.
We are able to use this, as you see within the prime picture, to go in and acknowledge the entire issues in a front room or in no matter space. So, whether or not you are constructing a sensible vacuum cleaner that is aware of, oh, wait a minute, I am going beneath the sofa, that is the place all of the mud is, we are able to construct in that form of data, however we are able to additionally use it to do autonomous driving automobiles in order that we are able to drive coast to coast with out driver intervention. The identical factor, we are able to do monitoring of individuals, so we are able to do monitoring of them. We are able to do biometrics on this. So it is attention-grabbing that we have seen this very low-cost digicam expertise, very low-cost computing energy with a mix of AI that is going to revolutionize how we construct clever techniques for the long run. We have additionally seen type of it was once that it was very exhausting to do programming of those techniques in an inexpensive method.
We at the moment are attending to codeless programming the place you do not have to jot down code in a standard style, as an alternative, you may go in and transfer round just a few blocks. And by doing this, you may utterly reprogram a producing line or a provide chain line to do that. That is very attention-grabbing as a result of it allows us to construct a paradigm the place you want very restricted coaching and you’ll nonetheless get to an excellent place of doing this. So, it was once that our rule of thumb was that for a system being deployed, 25% of the price was the robotic, 25% of the price was for the {hardware}, after which half of the price was truly software program. If we are able to take that fifty% of the price and cut back it to one thing like 10%, the price of the general system goes down by 40%, and that opens up a lot of markets we have by no means seen earlier than. But it surely additionally implies that we are able to have individuals which can be largely unskilled labor that may design and program these techniques.
So that is actually altering how we enter the market and why we have now seen such an amazing quantity of development that we have not seen earlier than. After all, I might be amiss if I additionally did not point out that AI, machine studying, and deep studying is revolutionizing wherever from automating electrical processes, however all the best way all the way down to doing logistics, to doing manufacturing. We are able to do significantly better analytics. We are able to individualize it. We are able to arrange these techniques. We are able to program them to have a really excessive diploma of agility, which we have not actually seen earlier than. So that is an space the place we are going to proceed to see varied important development. It was once that it was primarily among the massive, the FAANG firms that had been doing this, however now we’re seeing this getting commoditized all the way down to a degree the place everyone is utilizing it.
Identical time we’re getting to a degree the place we’re utilizing standardized or type of pre-trained techniques to do that, so you do not have to spend days doing coaching. We are able to discuss for about minutes or seconds and nonetheless get very excessive efficiency. So in abstract, the world is actually adopting robots. We’re doing this to extend the standard of life. So we have seen these individuals need to stay autonomous. All through this, we wish to have the ability to assist with healthcare expertise to ensure we are able to deal with regardless of the challenges are. We enhance the flexibleness in order that we are able to get to the e-commerce, we are able to get to hundreds of thousands of various configurations of varied merchandise, and on the similar time, allows us then to make use of this to do meals, addressing local weather challenges, addressing financial development, and democratizing it, so it turns into obtainable for everyone.
And that is why we proceed to see general development for your entire sector of 15 to 18% when it comes to adoption, when it comes to trade statistics, and that then, in flip, we see very important development for a lot of completely different firms. And with that, I’ll hand it again to Jeremie.
Jeremie Capron:
Thanks very a lot, Henrik. Let me ask you just a few questions whereas we watch for the individuals’ questions. I am going to remind everyone, you should use the Q and A field on the backside. I see we have now just a few already coming in, however let me kick it off with… Nicely, you are working with lots of college students, entrepreneurs, governments, massive companies world wide. I do know you are simply again from Europe. Let me ask you this, what’s probably the most thrilling undertaking that you just’re concerned with immediately or within the current previous?
Henrik Christensen:
So for me, probably the most thrilling is that we constructed automobiles for doing micro-mobility, the place we are able to do bundle deliveries in very crowded environments. So the truth that I may drive one among my autonomous driving automobiles on fifth avenue in New York, and in a position to truly handle to undergo the entire pedestrians and do that in a method that’s applicable. The truth that we have gotten to a degree the place I could make this low-cost sufficient, I could make it accessible sufficient, and I can do it in a method the place individuals can drive via it, I feel, is credibly attention-grabbing. In order that’s type of one. So doing the micro-mobility. I feel the opposite one was the undertaking that I discussed at our analysis institute we now have in order that we are able to do teleoperation, teleoperated surgical procedure on an plane provider in the midst of the Pacific. This opens up very attention-grabbing alternatives to do that. So these are two examples the place I really feel we’re actually altering the world.
Jeremie Capron:
Proper. Yeah. Henrik, we’re very excited in regards to the deployment of autonomous techniques. We have seen them in manufacturing. Now we’re seeing them in logistics with autonomous cell robots, shifting items and elements in warehouses, and now you are speaking about micro-mobility and precise automobiles on the highway in public areas. We have seen robo taxis going business with values levels of success, however it’s right here. In truth, we’re additionally taking a look at an organization that makes autonomous indoor drones that may fly in swarms. For logistics purposes, what do you suppose is the present cutting-edge for autonomous techniques, and the place do you see probably the most business enchantment?
Henrik Christensen:
I feel I am going to break it into two as a result of there’s the indoor and there is the out of doors. And for the out of doors, we at the moment are beginning to see coast to coast autonomous driving with these automobiles, the place you get on the freeway. So it’s type of a ramp to ramp autonomy. Loads of that is truly not pushed by, can I get the driving force out of the cabin. It is pushed by that we see 5 to 10% gas financial savings. So automobiles are literally higher at driving, or computer systems are higher at driving than individuals are. I can do coasting. I can predict what the prepare seems like. I can predict the visitors. And in the event you take a look at this from, in case you are among the massive carriers, 5-10% gas financial savings is an amazing sum of money. So there, I feel we’re seeing this, and I feel we’ll see lots of them, the expertise being matured on the interstate for ramp to ramp autonomy earlier than we actually get into the cities. It is extremely exhausting to do driving in the midst of this.
So I am nervous about when sure firms promise we could have degree 5 autonomous automobiles and we could have robo taxis. We’re not fairly there but. It’s going to take slightly little bit of time. In order that’s why I feel the interstate might be the place we’re doing the testing. Indoor for autonomy, we are going to see totally autonomous warehouses which can be doing this, but in addition we are going to see as you talked about, locations the place you employ drones, as an example, to do stock administration, the place you may go in and you’ll monitor the entire issues which can be in your warehouse utilizing drones as a result of it is a lot simpler than going and utilizing a staircase to climb up and down the cabinets to determine what’s on the cabinets. So I feel we are going to see indoor touchless much less monitoring and administration of warehouses, and out of doors, it should be ramp to ramp autonomy that is going to drive the economic system.
Jeremie Capron:
Okay. Nicely, I see we have now a few questions across the affect of the pandemic, and I feel clearly the pandemic has turbocharged the digitization of the economic system. It turned very obvious final yr. Most firms we analysis and discuss to the members of the ROBO index. They inform us that automation demand is elevated considerably, and now the monetary markets definitely replicate that to some extent, proper? The ROBO index portfolio was up 45% final yr. The AI portfolio was up within the sixties, they usually proceed robust into 2021. So to me, that is considerably just like 2017. The final time we had been listening to from automation firms that demand was extraordinarily robust. What do you suppose is going on right here and the way sustainable is that new trajectory?
Henrik Christensen:
Nicely, so I feel the 2 completely different questions in there. So when it comes to the post-COVID logistics automation, I feel individuals have realized, why do I must go to the grocery retailer for lots of those on a regular basis purchases. I can go in, I can get it delivered. If you’re a mother or father with two youngsters that you just in any other case must decide up in daycare, undergo the grocery retailer, the place you are attempting to do crowd administration of your loved ones whilst you’re additionally making an attempt to do that is extremely irritating. You understand I haven’t got to do that anymore. I can go house, I can order it. And any person will present up at my doorstep, and that essentially modifications it. So I feel we have definitely if I take a look at my circle of relatives, we’re in some extent the place we go to the grocery retailer lower than half of what we did earlier than since you simply go in and you set it on the checklist of what do we want.
After which finally on the finish of the day, you press please ship tomorrow earlier than midday, and it simply occurs. This provides us lots of flexibility that we did not have earlier than. I haven’t got to fret about which retailer do I’ve to go to. It will get delivered. So I feel that is right here to remain. It offers us a degree of flexibility we have by no means imagined earlier than. I do not see individuals going again anytime quickly. There are nonetheless those that need to go in and say, no, I need the most recent, I need the freshest greens and stuff like that. That’s 10 to fifteen% of the client base. It isn’t the bulk.
So the bulk will do that. And the truth that you may get it to your entrance door makes an amazing distinction. When it comes to the digitization of the economic system, which was the opposite a part of the query, is that we at the moment are at some extent the place, to begin with, due to sensing, we are able to monitor each product. All the best way, I can inform the place it’s from the time the strawberries had been picked in San Luis Obispo till they get delivered to my entrance door.
This allows me to do significantly better analytics. I perceive the place’s the loss. The place is it? I can monitor it. Is it recent? How recent is it? So all of this, and the identical factor for the availability chain administration. So the instance I discussed earlier than, in a normal automotive manufacturing unit immediately, storage capability is 12 minutes. Stuff arrives on the manufacturing unit, 12 minutes later, it is mounted within the automotive and it is on its method out. So we have gotten to this the place we used to have massive warehouses, lots of storage capability constructed into the system. These days are gone. We are able to use AI, we are able to use analytics, we are able to do predictive management to foretell, what do we want for Thanksgiving? What do we want for Valentines?
And all of this enables us to do significantly better administration of our capability. After all, then the problem is we have made these techniques extremely lean. So in the event you see a problem just like the Suez Channel, abruptly our system is, uh-oh, we did not construct in storage capability to deal with this as a result of… So our system continues to be not as strong as you desire to, however general, I feel we made these techniques extremely lean via AI, via automation. It’s going to stick with us, however we nonetheless have to determine how can we robustify these techniques for giant challenges just like the Suez Channel.
Jeremie Capron:
Henrik, we have now some questions across the labor affect and there is a labor scarcity proper now within the U S definitely popping out of the pandemic. The place do you see robots serving to clear up that drawback, and longer-term, how do you see the affect on the workforce?
Henrik Christensen:
So, we did type of an evaluation for the roadmap the place we checked out this, and there is virtually one correlation between investments in robotics and development in jobs, and it is not causation. It isn’t like in the event you put money into robotics, you additionally make use of extra individuals, however there is a robust correlation which has to do with stronger economies. So I feel it is going to be the soiled boring and harmful jobs which can be getting changed my labor. In the event you take a look at the usual warehouse, the turnover is someplace round three individuals a yr. Individuals do not need to work in these warehouses. There is not any method you see, it is a hundred levels, the humidity is 90. This isn’t the place individuals need to be. So we are going to see a lot of these jobs will get changed. And on the similar time, it’ll give us a lot increased agility when it comes to managing these processes.
I can construct warehouses in my native neighborhood. So it is lots of these course of that we are going to see, the place we’ll get in. And the goodness is that permits us to displace individuals to the areas the place you actually need the human contact. I am nonetheless stunned that immediately… So the opposite factor I do, I am a meals connoisseur. I like to go to eating places and stuff like that. Many eating places are nonetheless solely at 50% capability as a result of they’ll get individuals. So, we have to go away from the locations the place we actually do not want individuals and put them in locations the place we actually want individuals.
And so we are going to see a shift in workforce round this. I am not seeing at the least within the brief time period, a big discount within the want for workforce, it should proceed to develop, however it will be the very conventional, extremely repetitive jobs in robust work environments that can go away. That is the place we do the alternative. That is true for India. It is true for China. It is true for the US. So it is a international effort that we are going to see. However we have completed many research and up to now, we have not been in a position to present that at a macro scale, robots are changing jobs. It is shifting jobs to new domains, however it’s not eliminating jobs.
Jeremie Capron:
Understood. I see some questions round AI coming in. As , Henrik, we predict AI is actually a kind of key enabling applied sciences which can be increasing the scope of potential purposes for robotics. And it is actually an essential a part of our funding technique, each for the ROBO and financial institution portfolios. So, so much has been completed round laptop imaginative and prescient and the popularity round that in digital photos after which the pure language processing we have made large progress. Now, AI is pushing into different broader ranges of purposes. The place do you see AI being deployed efficiently? The place is it going? I see, we have now a query in regards to the 5, to 10-year horizon. Perhaps we need not go that far out, however the place is it going?
Henrik Christensen:
So for me, it is, we have seen an amazing quantity of progress on… a lot of the progress we have seen on AI has been offline. The truth that I can do face recognition in my picture library, the truth that I can do lots of… however it’s largely been the place I may do lots of coaching forward of time. We’re now shifting to a spot the place I can do lots of coaching on the fly, and doing this so we are able to actually get to real-time AI. And that might suggest that it will assist me take higher photos on my telephone. So in the event you take… I used to be very impressed just a few years in the past, I went to Huawei’s manufacturing unit in Shenzhen, and I mentioned, that is lots of processing energy. After which it is like, oh yeah, everytime you take a portrait along with your digicam, we are going to take 60 photos.
And we are going to solely return the one the place you smile. So, for example, it is a digicam that takes wonderful photos. Yeah. As a result of we use AI to throw away the 59 photos that we do not suppose you desire to. So that is an instance the place we’re getting from picture processing, from doing this… I flew again to, as you mentioned, from Europe not too long ago, and Atlanta airport, they do face recognition of you. You do not have to indicate your ticket anymore. That is the place we’re getting all of this. The person interface will essentially change how we do that. In order that’s one space of AI, we’ll do significantly better analytics than we have completed earlier than. After which, after all, we’re attending to the place we are able to do pure language processing. So the place we are able to do translation, we are able to allow it.
Now, I used to activate grammar checks, blah, blah, blah, in phrases, to ensure that I truly wrote an inexpensive set of texts immediately. I’ve all of those AI instruments that mentioned, oh, you might be conscious, it’s best to have a remark right here, and it’s best to actually change this to this different phrase. So when it comes to NLP, we are going to all change into prolific, wonderful writers. Regardless that naturally I may not be a prolific, wonderful author. So we’re seeing this, it is enabled us in our every day lives to compensate for our limitations and bringing them ahead. So I feel that is good. The third space is in healthcare. We are able to do significantly better diagnostics. We are able to monitor you. The scary half can also be, I’ve all of those applied sciences that monitor me every day that can inform me, are you understanding exhausting sufficient?
Are you exerting your self an excessive amount of? Are you conscious your temperature simply went up 0.5 levels? Perhaps it’s best to take it simple immediately. So we are going to get this large quantity of knowledge, and we have already had that large quantity of knowledge, however now we are able to course of it and supply determination help to individuals. Whether or not it is in your every day train routine, it is for meals it is for what you are promoting processes. I might say we have solely touched the primary 5% of AI. So that is an space the place you are going to see large development going ahead. The identical for TV suggestions, no one sits down and does the schedule and says, what’s on at eight o’clock? You go and say, hey I need to watch a comedy proper now or…
So we’re attending to the place we’re rather more personalised in something we do, and it is being enabled by AI. And it is as a result of it is changing into so low-cost. As I mentioned with my digicam, I can now get to the place I can do that for 10 bucks. And that means that you are able to do it all over the place in your housebreaking system, in your TV leisure, in your meals prep, that modifications it. So I feel that is why we’re very excited in regards to the THNQ portfolio as a result of it opens up for applied sciences that can affect all features of your every day life.
Jeremie Capron:
And following up on that, Henrik, I see some questions across the software program aspect, the {hardware} aspect of the robotics trade. What are the enabling applied sciences that matter probably the most to the continued enlargement of robotics? Now we have a participant asking if it is extra in regards to the software program and the algorithms or the machine itself and the elements. I am curious to listen to, the place do you see the alternatives when it comes to enabling applied sciences?
Henrik Christen…: Certain. I have been quoted earlier than when it comes to saying that I really feel that the final 50 years of robotics have been dominated by mechanical engineers. It has been about constructing mechanisms, constructing them so that you’ve excessive precision, you will have a excessive carry, you will have excessive effectivity. All of these items at the moment are within the software program. And I feel the enabling half has been, we have got two sensors which can be type of strong sufficient and low-cost sufficient that we are able to instrument all the things. On the similar time, we would gotten to the quantity of processing energy, and there it is each the CPU, but in addition gaining access to the graphical processing models, the GPUs that may do large quantities of knowledge processing in very restricted time. So these instruments have now been commoditized and made sufficiently small you can put them all over the place. And now it is the software program. On the similar time with the software program, it was once extremely difficult to program these techniques.
Now we’re attending to the place via machine studying, we are able to do data-driven extraction of key parameters. So in the event you take a look at among the AI-based firms, they’ll do pre-training so that you just’re 90% at an answer earlier than you present up on the buyer. And then you definately present up on the buyer and also you do the final changes, and you can do that, it was once days or even weeks. Now you are able to do this in seconds and minutes. Come and modify to the actual line. So we’re seeing this, so I am positive a few of you noticed that Google simply spun out intrinsic, which is making an attempt to go after a method of truly doing this. We have seen co-variant, we have seen firms like Berkshire Gray which can be making an attempt to do these items. So a lot of these firms which can be popping out that let you very quickly get up a system and get it going.
And so we have now now the sensors, we have now the computing energy, but in addition we have now software program instruments that make it accessible to non-PhD individuals who truly do programming of those techniques and doing it a really restricted period of time. So earlier than I mentioned 25, 25, 50, when it comes to price, that fifty% software program price has come all the way down to one thing that’s a lot decrease and with a a lot increased diploma of agility. So, that essentially modifications it. Nonetheless, we want higher instruments. However the different factor is that we’re getting very large-scale information units that permit us to do lots of the coaching earlier than. Earlier than it was exhausting. Someone got here to me and mentioned, we’ll use a petabyte of knowledge to coach your system. I might have been, that is actually scary. At present, put them on video, positive, not a giant deal. However it’ll take us just a few hours to course of it, however 10 years in the past that might have been intractable.
So the query is, how are we… the following factor is, I feel the place we are going to see the following revolution is in hardware-software co-design. The place we are going to get to a degree the place you present me the general wants of your software. And I optimize it for what ought to I do in {hardware}? What ought to it do in software program? And so 5 years out, {hardware}, software program co-design, and that is the place among the firms we have seen much less development from. So AMD, Intel, all of those firms will come again as a result of it will open up solely new methods. We have seen development that we have not seen not too long ago.
Jeremie Capron:
I feel there’s an essential query right here across the environmental impacts and the way these applied sciences can maybe assist. And right here at ROBO World, it is a essential matter to us. Not solely environmental however social and governance features. We pay lots of consideration to these elements once we design these portfolios. I feel basically, there is a pure tendency for robotics and automation to have a constructive affect when it comes to the surroundings, simply given that they are targeted on productiveness and effectivity and utilizing much less power and pure useful resource. However however, you even have this dramatic enhance in compute energy and we’re utilizing increasingly more chips and maybe some several types of supplies that may very well be more durable to recycle. So we have now a query from a participant about AI serving to with local weather change. What are your ideas round that, Henrik?
Henrik Christensen:
So I feel, there’s fairly a lot of completely different features to it. So I discussed earlier than, driving coast to coast in vehicles, in the event you do autonomous driving, we are able to cut back the gas consumption by 5% p.c. That is a fairly large deal that we are able to truly go in and do that. Computer systems are significantly better at anticipating visitors, anticipating when can I do coasting? When can I not do coasting? In order that’s an instance the place we see it, but in addition we’re seeing it when it comes to with the ability to do manufacturing on demand. So it is not like in the event you’re harvesting fruits or no matter, that you just’re nervous about, am I truly constructing stuff or producing stuff that isn’t wanted, which might affect when it comes to, I stay in California, so I care deeply about water. So with the ability to do that.
So I feel we are going to get to a lean manufacturing system the place we save water. We solely apply pesticides the place we actually want pesticides. So all of it will permit us to construct a way more sustainable economic system. The draw back has been, as an example for the deep studying, that among the very giant scale, as an example, pure language processors takes extra CPU energy to coach than 100 flights throughout the Atlantic. In order that’s fairly scary that a few of these coaching… you are taking a super-computing heart at one of many massive firms, and also you run it for 3 days. That generates as a lot CO2 output as flying throughout the Atlantic 100 occasions. So there we at the moment are attending to the place we will be a lot smarter about how we do coaching, but in addition we are able to stage it so we are able to do pre-training, which can be utilized many times.
So we used to do group drive purposes of computing energy, however we have now now acknowledged that until we’re very cautious about how we use these techniques, this might have a unfavourable environmental affect. So in the event you go and ask the massive firms, the primary query is, what is that this going to do for the local weather? The identical factor we are going to see for all of the issues I feel we are able to optimize processes to be rather more environmentally pleasant than what we have seen earlier than as a result of we are able to actually make them lean. We are able to actually make them optimize whether or not it is driving or manufacturing. We are able to optimize it for supplies to do significantly better recycling than we have completed earlier than. We are able to kind recycling significantly better than we have completed earlier than.
After which lastly, we’re attending to the place the place we apply AI in a stage style to ensure that it doesn’t have a unfavourable affect on the surroundings. So I feel it’s best to count on to see this far and wide, but in addition it’s best to count on that that is one thing we see rather more emphasis on. 10 years in the past individuals had been like, yeah, in a second. Now, that is query primary or quantity two, once we discuss how can we consider processes?
Jeremie Capron:
So, we’re operating slightly bit out of time, however I need to deal with a pair extra of the questions coming in Henrik, particularly round China. Right here at ROBO, we have chosen to incorporate in our portfolios, some expertise and market leaders in China. And China has been the fastest-growing marketplace for automation for a while now and not too long ago obtained among the native champions displace overseas leaders. What do you consider the US-China expertise race, and maybe among the implications we should always think about as traders?
Henrik Christensen:
Nicely, so I am going to offer you a number of solutions to it. So the primary is, after all, as ROBO international, we have now not solely a US funding automobile, we have now, the index is Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, London, you identify it, we’re far and wide. So for us, we are able to’t afford to solely take into consideration this from a US perspective. Now we have to consider this from a world perspective. The fastest-growing marketplace for AI or for robotics immediately is China. So I discussed earlier than 30% of all automobiles manufactured worldwide are made in China. And most of the people may not understand this. The US shouldn’t be even within the prime 5 for manufacturing automobiles. It is China, it is Japan, it is India, it is Germany and it is Korea. After which quantity six is the US. So we must be cautious. And in automobiles, specifically, there is a large adoption of robotics expertise to make this attainable.
So we see yr over yr continued 50% plus development in China. And we’re seeing, Midea acquired KUKA. They’re the third-largest robotics firm on this planet. That’s nonetheless going to be an important half. We are going to see a few of that transfer out of China due to the US… China’s different commerce complicated, or we’ll see a few of it transfer out. I am not satisfied it should transfer again to the US. I feel it’ll transfer to Vietnam. It’s going to transfer to India. India simply introduced this massive initiative of, make it in India. The home market in India is as giant because the Chinese language market. It isn’t the US. So we are going to see a diffusion of expertise going over this. However on the similar time, we have now to remember that with these very giant home markets, we are going to see expertise.
Additionally in AI, we’re seeing Baidu, we’re seeing Alibaba. We’re seeing a lot of these firms which can be very robust international gamers on this market. And I feel on the finish of the day, our duty to our traders is to ensure that we return most capital to them. We need to have this and we are able to’t afford to be, at the least from my standpoint, caught up an excessive amount of within the political local weather between the US and China. Now we have to take a look at this and we are going to proceed to see this. So in China, the salaries have gone up 350% during the last 10 years, and that has pushed for a a lot bigger adoption of applied sciences. It’s now costlier to do manufacturing in China than it’s to do in Mexico. Simply to provide you an information level, however nonetheless 30% of the automotive market.
We see different issues, textiles, all of those areas are in China. The provision chain is in China. For that cause, they’re automating. They’re doing the info science that we have talked about to a level that we have not seen wherever else. This is a chance. That is why you see ABB robotics headquarters in China, KUKA Midea is there. We’re seeing CSR, we’re seeing a lot of these firms which can be doing investments there as a result of it is a very attention-grabbing market. However I feel you’ll slowly see a diffusion. We are going to see it decide up in India, we have seen it already in Vietnam and in different areas. So we have now to consider this as a global panorama and see, the place are the expansion alternatives? However it’s best to count on to see precision gears, motors, CPU energy, all of that can have an amazing quantity of development in China for the following 5 to 10 years, at the least. And we have to at the least keep watch over this to ensure we’re making the precise funding selections.
Jeremie Capron:
Proper. Nicely, as I mentioned, we do embrace the Chinese language expertise and market leaders in our portfolios. And up to now it has been an excellent place to be regardless of the current issues across the web giants in China getting beneath much more scrutiny from the Chinese language authorities that, fortunately that hasn’t actually affected the robotics and automation firms over there.
Henrik Christensen:
On the similar time, the very best autonomous automotive I’ve pushed, I drove in China. So Huawei took me on a tour displaying their autonomous driving automobiles exterior of Shenzhen, the place they had been utilizing a mix of sensors, CPU, and 5G. And it was simply unbelievable. I have never seen a demo like this wherever else on this planet. So, we have to keep watch over this to ensure that we actually perceive who’s going to win this race. And I feel ignoring China could be naive. We have to keep watch over the place are these applied sciences and who do we predict are going to be the long run expertise leaders.
Jeremie Capron:
Okay. Nicely, I feel it is time to wrap up right here. I need to remind everybody that if you wish to be taught extra about investing in robotics, automation, and AI, please go to our web site, roboglobal.com, the place we share a few of our analysis on firms within the ROBO, THNQ, and HTEC portfolios. You possibly can join our publication. We’ll offer you a biweekly e-mail with among the analysis highlights. Thanks very a lot, Henrik, for sharing with us immediately. I do know you are on a fairly tight schedule. I need to thank additionally all of you who joined us on this name immediately, and we look ahead to talking with you once more very quickly. Thanks all goodbye.
Henrik Christensen:
Thanks Jeremie.
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